SpaceX Over, Fed Meeting Done, What’s Next?

Kevin Warsh delivered the FOMC press conference with a hawkish tone, but markets absorbed it without significant damage. The dot-plot priced in one rate hike through year-end, roughly matching expectations, and prior CPI fears had already triggered sell-offs ahead of the decision. The SpaceX IPO did not materialize as a negative catalyst, and the view is that markets are likely in a Goldilocks period with continued performance expected through at least August or September.

Mag7 equities are underperforming because those companies are selling equity and raising debt to fund data center capital expenditure buildouts. The suggested trade is to buy what Mag7 is purchasing rather than their own stock, specifically semiconductors. Intel, Sandisk, and Micron are expected to continue performing well. Intel separately signed a deal with Apple to supply and manufacture chips in the United States.

Robinhood reported crypto revenue down 47 percent in Q1 but platform assets up 50 percent year over year to approximately 400 billion dollars, with Gold subscribers up 36 percent. The company cut 10 percent of its workforce and is rolling out agent trading to all users. Workforce cuts were characterized as not inherently bearish because capital gets reallocated to marketing, buybacks, and shareholder returns. Robinhood is considered a better investment play than Hyperliquid currently, with Hyperliquid held back by cross-asset holders in the broader crypto complex.

Michael Saylor's STRC instrument is described as a Bitcoin savings account issuing an 11 percent dividend, trading at 82.61. Saylor funded those dividends by selling MSTR equity, which compressed the premium on MicroStrategy. The concern is that Saylor faces a spiral where he must pause or reduce the dividend or sell significant Bitcoin to cover debt obligations, with much of the MicroStrategy debt coming due in 2027. The view is that Saylor should have used recent equity issuance to refinance rather than buy more Bitcoin, and he has since begun selling Bitcoin.

The emerging markets thesis for the year was described as completely incorrect, with Korea's performance attributed exclusively to its semiconductor industry. All meaningful AI-driven innovation and investment is characterized as concentrated in the United States. A strengthening dollar is described as bad for gold, Bitcoin, and commodities broadly, and investors still holding emerging markets exposure are advised to consolidate back into US assets.

The Iran deal was characterized as favorable to Iran and not beneficial to the United States or Israel. The memorandum of understanding is described as untenable and likely to produce future conflict. A potential conflict flare-up around September or October is flagged as a risk that could spike oil prices and cause a market tumble, though the Trump administration is seen as having strong incentive heading into midterms to prevent escalation.

Mid Journey is releasing a medical scanning device claimed to perform more scans than the entirety of all MRIs in the United States, described as the first real AI application to a physical product rather than software or coding, and raised 70 million dollars in funding. Butterfly Therapeutics rose 33 percent on related news. On June 17 the FDA reversed its gene therapy policy, sending Unicure Huntington stock up 80 percent. The FDA under RFK is described as more permissive than it has ever been. In Silico Medicine, which trades on the Hong Kong stock exchange and uses AI exclusively to generate new drugs, was mentioned alongside a purchase of ARKG Arc Revolutionary Genomics ETF at approximately 3 percent of portfolio allocation, with the speaker acknowledging limited biotech expertise and plans for further research before increasing exposure. Accenture fell 30 percent as AI begins to disrupt consulting and investment banking analyst roles.

A nuclear revolution in the United States is expected within three to five years, with URA projected to return three to five times over that period. A caveat is that if Russia returns to energy markets after the war ends, uranium commodity prices could be pressured, though that could benefit US uranium refiners. Separately, commodity prices for uranium may not rise proportionally with demand because miners can scale production to outpace demand growth.

The broader thesis is that capital is rotating from the digital world to the physical world after 15 to 20 years of allocation concentrated in digital industries. US GDP is approximately three times larger than it was two decades ago but physical infrastructure has not improved proportionally. AI combined with robotics and new American dynamism investment funds is expected to produce significant changes to US infrastructure including power grid upgrades. Declining engineering costs are described as freeing capital for marketing and in-person activity, with New York restaurant demand cited as evidence of strong appetite for physical world engagement.