From Memecoins to Markets: Solana’s Next Trade

Tokens and traditional equity are expected to converge into a single system within ten to twenty years, with tokens described as superior to equity on traditional rails because they are programmable, trade continuously, are globally accessible, and are more transparent. The caveat is that tokens must confer the same legal rights as equity shareholders to maintain that superiority. A possible carve-out exists for Bitcoin and layer-one assets as digital commodities. Equity issuance is expected to surpass even the large 2021 IPO year in 2026, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and names in semiconductors and AI reportedly expected to IPO in late 2025 or 2026.

The SpaceX IPO, which occurred the week prior to recording, became an early test case for on-chain equity infrastructure. Hyperliquid saw over one billion dollars in SpaceX volume on IPO day, making it the second largest market by volume at one point. Backpack, in partnership with Daylight on Solana, enabled post-IPO spot trading of tokenized SpaceX shares with on and off ramps to actual equity, generating approximately fifteen million dollars in volume on day one, seven million on day two, and thirteen million on day three. Tokenized equity spot activity on Solana and related protocols has represented approximately 98 percent of all crypto activity in that category.

A key distinction of Backpack's tokenized stocks is that they are one-for-one fungible and transferable to other brokerages for KYC'd users, separating them from earlier tokenized stock products. Backpack's model was compared to what Circle and Tether did with stablecoins, operating without a formal regulatory framework while pushing innovation until regulation catches up. Backpack has made regulatory hires and partnered with SuperState with the goal of bringing on-chain IPOs to market, though getting onto IPO allocation dockets was described as a tough ask. Robinhood has been approved to serve as an IPO underwriter, signaling that platforms are broadly positioning for on-chain equity issuance.

There are at least five different variants of SpaceX tokenized assets on Solana, including Backpack Securities, X-Stalks SpaceX, Ondo tokenized SpaceX, Pre-Stocks, and TSPX. Liquidity fragmentation across these variants was identified as harmful to user experience and a potential deterrent for institutional participants. The Pre-Stocks SpaceX spot asset trades at a discount due to its SPV structure, a six-month lock-up on share delivery, and fees paid to the SPV, making Backpack's approach of waiting until IPO to list comparatively lower risk. The Solana Foundation's tokens.xyz product was cited as a potential tool to standardize tokenized equity offerings and reduce fragmentation. If Backpack's one-for-one fungible model plays out organically, it was predicted to become the dominant tokenized equity issuer on Solana.

AMM pools including Meteora, Radium, and Orca were noted as potential beneficiaries if tokenized equities replace meme coins as long-tail assets on Solana. However, a daily volume of approximately ten million dollars was described as likely insufficient to justify a prop AMM quoting a given asset pair. Alpha Q and a few other prop AMMs began quoting tokenized equity assets roughly one to a few months before recording but subsequently dropped off. Long-tail tokenized equity assets on Solana were predicted to remain dominated by traditional AMMs until volumes mature enough to attract prop market makers, and prop AMMs may also require KYC through a brokerage to quote tokenized equities.

Backpack has both a token and has indicated plans to IPO, a combination historically considered a negative signal for token holders since labs entities tend to capture value while tokens act as meme coins. There were indications, possibly since removed by lawyers, that Backpack token stakers held for a period of time could receive an IPO allocation, though the mechanism has not been clearly specified and relies on good faith from the team with no legal enforcement mechanism. In most dual token-equity structures historically, the token effectively gets zeroed when a company is acquired or acqui-hired. Teams were cautioned against launching low float, high fully diluted valuation tokens and against launching a token alongside equity if the token will have no value.

Jito's JTX was identified as the first institutional-grade front-end trading platform being built on Solana, designed to offer professional order types including resting limits, brackets, one-cancels-the-other orders, and TWAPs. The JTO token was up approximately 50 percent on the day of recording and had roughly tripled in the prior month. Jito's current annualized front-end revenue run rate is approximately five million dollars, while block building revenue is declining and may be sunsetted by future Solana protocol upgrades. A modeled bull scenario assumes Solana DEX volumes triple from roughly fifty billion to one hundred fifty billion dollars, with JTX capturing 20 percent of that volume at two basis points and the router taking 20 percent, yielding roughly fifty to sixty million dollars per year. At the token price on the day of recording the implied valuation multiple is approximately 150 times revenue, which would compress to under ten times if the bull scenario is realized. The bull case depends on the CLARITY Act passing to allow institutional players to touch crypto, tokenized equities developing through platforms like Backpack, and DEX volumes tripling.