Are Rate Cuts Dead?

The central debate is whether rate cuts remain on the table, and the speakers conclude they are not dead, with rates expected to go lower for the foreseeable future. The Fed's rate decision itself is described as 97 to 99.9 percent certain to hold, making it a non-event. What matters is what Powell signals at the 2:30 PM press conference. Any probability of cuts in 2026 has already been priced out. If Powell signals dovishness and markets rally but inflation stays elevated, the setup becomes a summer sugar rush followed by a significant unwind. The collapse in oil prices following the Iran ceasefire is described as a gift to incoming Fed chair Warsh, removing pressure to pivot early. If Warsh adopts a quieter communication style with fewer press conferences and less forward guidance, as Morgan Stanley reportedly warned, investors should tighten risk given the uncertainty about rate trajectory.

The speakers argue the current environment is dominated by flows rather than fundamentals, and investors who track unlock schedules, index inclusion mechanics, and credit conditions will outperform those focused on earnings and valuation. Fundamentals will matter again when the credit cycle resets and liquidity drains, but that moment is described as not near. Financial engineering and credit problems are what ultimately torpedo markets, and there is no real sell-off without a credit crisis.

SpaceX is used as the primary case study for the flows thesis. With approximately 4 percent of its float available and Nasdaq 100 inclusion driving an estimated 7 to 10 billion dollars in forced buying, the trade is described as technical regardless of fundamental valuation. The unlock schedule runs 20 to 30 percent after first quarterly earnings, 7 percent each at 70, 90, 105, and 135 days post-IPO if trading above 175, 28 percent after second quarterly earnings, and the remainder after 180 days, with no major unlocks expected until August or September. The speakers predict SpaceX will decline significantly when unlocks begin, drawing a parallel to crypto assets that pump briefly around unlock events before falling sharply, and advise selling two weeks before unlock dates. One speaker is neutral on SpaceX at current prices.

The Iran conflict illustrates why geopolitical events do not drive sustained sell-offs. Markets ripped higher after the ceasefire despite a full-blown war and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. The historical parallel cited is Kim Jong-un nuclear threats in 2010, when markets similarly shrugged off the risk. The Iran deal is described as unsustainable, with conflict expected to flare back up within nine to eighteen months. Any next conflict is predicted to involve Israel acting unilaterally with the United States staying out. One speaker believes Iran would attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz if Israel attacks alone, while another disagrees, arguing Iran would not because it would turn world opinion against Iran rather than Israel. Markets are expected to remain stable through approximately 2027 given that the nuclear threat has been pushed beyond the nine to eighteen month window.

Energy is estimated at 35 to 40 percent of the most recent CPI rise, and the resolution of the Iran situation combined with incoming increases in oil supply is described as bearish for inflation. Oil has already dropped from above 100 to the 80s or high 70s. Oil is framed as the key pivot point determining whether the economy stays in a rate cut cycle or shifts toward hikes.

Bitcoin underperformance is attributed to Michael Saylor being described as the active float in Bitcoin and facing a credit problem. The Bitcoin MVRV Z score bouncing off the 0.25 buy zone is cited as a bullish signal, but lost mindshare remains a concern. Bitcoin is described as having become primarily a sailor asset, meaning it lacks the widespread disdain that would signal a true buying opportunity. Genuine capitulation would require mainstream coverage of MicroStrategy blowups and broad declarations that Bitcoin has lost its way. A long-term million-dollar price target is maintained, with Bitcoin seen as replacing the dollar in certain global trade flows.

Robin Hood was trading at approximately 75 when Hyper Liquid first hit 60. Robin Hood has since risen to 108 while Hyper Liquid is at 75. One speaker predicts Robin Hood will outperform Bitcoin over the next six months, citing the company's inroads into institutional trading capture as the key driver. A reduction in geopolitical conflict heading into midterms is seen as a potential headwind for America First assets including defense contractors and critical rare earth plays, with one speaker reconsidering positions in REMX and USA if conflict decreases.