Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays

Andreas Steno described the US-Iran deal as a memorandum of understanding covering the next 60 days, intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow Iran to sell oil globally without sanctions during that window. A signing ceremony was planned for later in the week in Switzerland. The enriched uranium question remains unresolved, and Lindsey Graham explicitly called on JD Vance and his negotiation team to consult Congress before settling that portion. Israel attempted to derail the deal on Sunday with an attack on Lebanon. Steno characterized the key change as all parties now being in genuine agreement, contrasting this with earlier moments when the deal was said to be done but was not.

Steno said he called the crisis over from an investment perspective in the first week of April and argued the oil market has been in a mild surplus since then, a view he says almost no one else had flagged at the time. Of roughly 20 million barrels per day that typically left the region, approximately 11.5 million were replaced through alternative measures. China has been on a buying strike since late March, importing roughly 5.5 million barrels per day less than normal. The US administration claims to have moved roughly 3 million barrels per day out of the Persian Gulf via Operation Freedom, with Peter Hexett stating more than 125 million barrels had left the Strait of Hormuz since the operation launched in early May. Iran moved oil along the coastline to India and Pakistan because the US blockade could not interfere in territorial waters. Steno noted both sides had incentives to conceal these flows, since Iran could not admit it lacked leverage over the strait and the US could not admit the blockade was inefficient.

Iranian oil production capacity is close to 4 million barrels per day at maximum, a level last seen between 2005 and 2008, and lifting sanctions could add approximately 0.75 million barrels per day on top of pre-war production levels. The UAE left OPEC Plus during the war, leaving OPEC effectively as a Saudi Arabia-only supply management group. Steno sees a current surplus of roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day and predicts oil prices will fall below 70 dollars per barrel by the end of the month. He expects China to wait patiently to buy oil into storage at lower prices rather than immediately increasing imports, and warns of a potential race to the bottom as producers face incentives to increase supply on a declining price trajectory. The sanctions relief is only confirmed for 60 days, and what follows depends on how negotiations develop.

The ECB hiked interest rates citing second-order inflation concerns approximately 24 hours before a resolution was found in the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB projects total eurozone growth of 0.8 percent for 2026 despite a negative first quarter, a figure that would require three consecutive quarters of roughly 0.5 percent quarterly growth. Steno takes the under on both the ECB's growth and inflation assumptions for 2026 and predicts central banks broadly will have to abandon inflation alarmism given the Strait of Hormuz resolution and falling energy prices. Kevin Warsh was identified as having a decent window to sound dovish at the Fed given the current price environment.

The US administration told Anthropic to restrict access to its Fable model for all users outside the United States, reportedly after an Amazon developer team exposed that the model's guardrails were not functioning as intended. Steno framed the export curb as net positive news because it implies a government backstop that reduces left-tail financing risk, even though it narrows Anthropic's total addressable market. The argument is that Anthropic and OpenAI have become too big to fail as instruments of a sovereign race toward AGI, making deep public sector involvement in their financing likely if needed. Both companies are targeting IPOs in October. Blue chip clients including Uber and Microsoft have reined in spending on Claude, and marginal AI activity has shifted slightly toward cheaper models ahead of those listings.

SpaceX completed what was described as the biggest IPO nominally in history, raising 75 billion dollars, with shares rising 15 to 20 percent on the day to levels near 175. SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100, adding passive inflow support. Total IPO proceeds this year are expected to reach roughly 300 billion dollars, representing approximately 4 percent of market cap, well below the dot-com peak of over 10 percent. Steno characterized the current IPO season as resembling the year before the final year of a cycle rather than a peak and still sees money left in the broader rally.

Steno said he prefers hardware companies supplying AI spenders over the AI names themselves, specifically citing memory and power semiconductors. South Korean semiconductor-related exports grew approximately 90 percent year over year in the first 10 days of the month. He views the VanEck Semiconductor ETF as having further upside and says the liquidity situation looks supportive through August.