BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Is $13 Billion Underwater

David Canales estimated Bitcoin ETF profit and loss by applying daily net fund flows to Bitcoin prices, rather than measuring ETF share prices. The result is an approximation: the exact prices at which each fund acquired Bitcoin are unknown, and the calculation treats each fund as a single entity rather than capturing the different results of individual shareholders. On that basis, BlackRock’s iBit had an estimated average Bitcoin cost of about $79,500, compared with a Bitcoin price near $62,000, and was roughly $13 billion underwater. Canales also cited an earlier estimate of $15 billion to $16 billion in losses. iBit’s estimated profit had peaked around $30 billion during Bitcoin’s rally to its all-time high, when inflows outweighed outflows.

Canales attributed iBit’s weak estimated result in part to continued inflows at different price levels, including near the market top. He cautioned that reports of ETF outflows can make it sound as though BlackRock itself is selling Bitcoin; in his account, shareholders are selling their ETF holdings, while BlackRock provides the fund wrapper and custody. The distinction matters when interpreting the estimates: they describe the aggregate effect of fund flows and Bitcoin prices, not a uniform loss for every shareholder or a direct measure of BlackRock’s own trading decisions.

Fidelity’s FBTC had an estimated average Bitcoin cost of about $55,000 to $55,350. Canales said FBTC shareholders took profits in December 2024 and that flows were roughly balanced late in the rally. Its estimated position subsequently moved from a peak of about $14 billion in profit to roughly $1.5 billion in losses. BitB was also estimated to be underwater, while the other Bitcoin ETFs were roughly at breakeven. Canales said a further Bitcoin decline could put every Bitcoin ETF underwater on its inflows if holders do not capitulate. Shareholder pressure could then prompt selling and accelerate outflows, making ETF holders a group to watch over the next six months. Another speaker described sharp capitulation followed by slow accumulation and consolidation as the usual final phase of a bear market.

The speakers also said spot Ether ETFs were underwater on flows. BlackRock’s fund was estimated to be down $6.4 billion, with its Ether bought at an average of about $3,900 against an Ether price near $1,600. Fidelity’s fund was estimated to be down about 18%, while BlackRock’s was nearly 60% down on net flows. As with the Bitcoin estimates, the fund-level figures do not establish the outcome for each individual investor, whose purchase timing and cost basis may differ.

SpaceX’s IPO was priced at $135 per share rather than assigned a price range. A speaker said its pre-IPO perpetual was trading around $138, while the Jupiter terminal’s $154 mark price appeared to need updating. These cash-settled products offer price exposure, not ownership of shares; the speaker characterized pre-IPO markets as a functioning but still small proof of concept. SpaceX was seeking to allocate about 20% to 35% of IPO shares to retail investors, compared with the usual 5% to 10%, a move one speaker said could reduce the appeal of crypto-based access.

SpaceX’s pre-IPO market had a market capitalization of $6 million and more than 11,000 holders, up from 6,600 on May 10. A speaker said reaching 50,000 holders would indicate a materially significant, healthy and deep market. Across pre-IPO stocks, total market capitalization was $22 million, with Anthropic at about 38%, SpaceX at 28% and OpenAI at 12%. One speaker expected OpenAI to go public later in the year and said participation in its pre-IPO market could change as that date approaches.