When Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might End

David Kanellis states the current Bitcoin bear market is approximately 235 days old at the time of recording, with the median length of prior bear markets sitting at 363 days. That places the current cycle roughly two thirds of the way through if historical patterns hold, with a comparable endpoint falling around September or October 2026, based on bear market four lasting 376 days.

At day 234 of the current bear market, Bitcoin is approximately 41 percent below its peak. Kanellis notes this is a shallower drawdown than comparable points in prior cycles. The 2018 bear market had erased about two thirds of value by day 235, and the 2021 to 2022 bear market had lost roughly 70 percent by the same stage. The current trajectory most closely resembles the early phase of bear market four before the COVID crash, when Bitcoin was only down around 31 percent at an equivalent point before more than doubling those losses over approximately 16 days.

Both the 2018 and 2021 to 2022 bear markets featured extended sideways price action followed by a sharp final capitulation rather than a gradual decline to the bottom. In the 2018 cycle, Bitcoin was 66 percent down around day 330 and then lost an additional 22 percent over the following 30 days. The 2021 to 2022 bear market's defining shock was the FTX collapse, while the 2018 bear market was driven by the Coincheck hack in January 2018 and peak China crypto ban fears. The implication is that the current cycle may not have experienced its decisive capitulation event yet.

Bear market drawdowns have been shrinking each cycle, with the 2018 bear market ending at an 83 percent retracement and the 2022 bear market ending at approximately 76 percent. Following that regression, the current bear market might bottom around 68 percent below the 2025 all-time high, which would place Bitcoin at approximately 39,500 to 40,000 dollars and require an additional 46 percent decline from current levels. Both speakers characterized cycle-based price prediction as equivalent to astrology, and one speaker expressed personal hope that Bitcoin ETF inflows and Strategy's buying activity provide a higher floor and prevent the full predicted drawdown from materializing.

The time between halving events and subsequent bull market peaks has been notably consistent across cycles, running 526 days after the July 2016 halving, 548 days after the May 2020 halving, and 535 days after the April 2024 halving. Kanellis argues Bitcoin bull markets are somewhat self-fulfilling prophecies in the context of the halving cycle, while acknowledging that limited price history prevents cycle analysis from being treated as an exact science. The consistency of those intervals is presented as meaningful but not conclusive evidence for timing future peaks.