Are Prediction Markets Killing Altcoins? | Scott Melker on Markets Outlook

Scott Melker argues that prediction markets and crypto platforms offering access to other assets have eroded altcoins’ role as the always-open, permissionless venue for speculation. From 2016 through 2021 or 2022, he says, altcoins were the main “casino” available around the clock; now speculators can move elsewhere. Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs failed to lift 99.9% of the altcoin market, which Melker says has been grinding through a bear market for five years. In his view, crypto has gone too long without the volatility speculators want, and they have found greener pastures.

The alternatives include markets available within crypto platforms: Melker points to trading silver on Hyperliquid and leveraged oil on Sundays, without leaving the platform. The interviewer raises tokenized equities as another possible draw for retail traders. Melker says pre-IPO stocks on crypto rails are highly speculative because they cannot yet be valued, but they could provide price discovery before a company goes public. He also sees widespread prediction-market speculation as a troubling sign that people do not feel financially healthy, calling it a sign of the end times for people’s financial future.

Melker treats Bitcoin separately from altcoins, arguing that it has reached mainstream adoption and should not be discussed as though it were just another crypto asset. Despite outflows and weak price action, he considers Bitcoin underrated and the current area a long-term opportunity; he says he is a heavy buyer with a “forever” horizon. He had previously thought $60,000 was the bottom and expected six or nine months of sideways trading, potentially in a $60,000-to-$90,000 range. At around $82,000, he thought Bitcoin looked overheated and could be in a bear-market bounce, but he did not necessarily expect a drop into the $30,000s, $40,000s, or $50,000s.

His broad Bitcoin outlook is “down and then up”: after a sideways period, he expects a move above $100,000, potentially toward the all-time high by year-end. He stresses that forecasts tied to a particular date are extremely difficult, that nobody has a crystal ball, and that no market outcome would surprise him given how often he has been wrong. The outlook is therefore a directional expectation, not a confident timetable or a claim that further declines are ruled out.

Melker says current markets feel irrational and difficult to value. Gold and silver are trading like altcoins, crypto platforms offer leveraged oil trading on Sundays, and interest rates and stocks can rise together. He argues that past models cannot reliably price markets under these conditions. He also sees institutional adoption of stablecoins and tokenization as real and important, but overhyped: much of the work is plumbing, and institutions are likely to capture the value. Crypto was intended to replace the dollar, he says, but has mostly improved the way dollars are delivered.

He also questions whether crypto has delivered a safer financial system, arguing that it has reproduced parts of traditional finance with weaker protections and guardrails. He cites CeFi collapses and continuing DeFi hacks and losses. Privacy, meanwhile, is a powerful market narrative, but he is skeptical that Zcash—or any asset he has seen so far—is the answer. After reviewing Zcash and HYPE charts, he thought both looked extremely overbought and the market overheated, though not necessarily at a permanent top. He says Zcash’s rally appeared to reflect many people deciding at once that it was the privacy answer, rather than a coordinated pump. He rejects the label “private Bitcoin” and has heard of Bitcoin holders buying Zcash in expectation of a rise, but not of anyone selling Bitcoin to replace it with Zcash.