CHILDREN TRADING BITCOIN! (Aliens Are HERE)

A viral video of a child on day 14 of day trading successfully hitting a take profit target using Bollinger Bands and RSI has circulated online. The host cited it as evidence that children are now actively trading Bitcoin with technical analysis, and separately noted he is teaching his own daughter to read Bitcoin charts, framing financial literacy as essential given how difficult homeownership has become for younger generations.

The median sale price for a single-family home fell 5.3 percent month over month in March to 387,000 dollars, the lowest level since July 2021 and the largest monthly decline since November 2024. After adjusting for inflation, the real median home price fell 6.3 percent to the lowest level since 2014. Home sellers now outnumber buyers by 630,000 people, described as the largest such gap ever recorded, against a backdrop of approximately 120 trillion dollars of US wealth held in single-family housing. A possible price floor is estimated around 370,000 to 380,000 dollars, characterized as a very aggressive hold.

Crank treats 77,000 dollars as the level Bitcoin must hold for current price action to remain valid, but characterizes the move as a bear market rally. A close above 100,000 dollars with sustained support there would change his bearish outlook. He and TJ have a 500-dollar wager on whether Bitcoin puts in a new low below 59,800 dollars before reaching a new all-time high. Key volume node resistance sits at 84,000 to 85,000 dollars and 97,000 dollars. Crank describes max pain as being to the upside, expecting a squeeze before any potential sweep of lows, with 88,000 to 89,000 dollars identified as the next upside objective and a near-term squeeze scenario to 116,000 dollars discussed as possible without necessarily setting a new all-time high.

Bitcoin has dropped approximately 55 percent from its 126,000 dollar all-time high, which one speaker says aligns with a thesis that ETF involvement would produce roughly a 50 percent drawdown from the high to the cycle low. One speaker argued a new pandemic-style shutdown would produce only a 30 percent pullback this cycle because of institutional adoption, ETFs, and strategic reserve narratives absent in 2020, when Bitcoin fell 57 percent in a single week from roughly 9,000 dollars to 3,800 dollars. A second speaker argued Bitcoin could drop 50 percent, citing gold losing trillions in market cap in a single day as evidence that large assets can move violently, with a primary downside target of 41,000 to 44,000 dollars based on a bars pattern projection. The Fibonacci golden pocket from Bitcoin's low of 15,500 dollars to its all-time high places major support at 54,000 to 57,000 dollars, coinciding with a high-volume breakout retest level from the November 6 election rally.

A diminished returns and diminished losses framework projects a 4.3x gain from the cycle low, putting the next bull market top between 200,000 and 220,000 dollars if Bitcoin bottoms at 55,000 dollars, or between 160,000 and 170,000 dollars if it bottoms at 40,000 dollars. The time from the 2017 all-time high to the 2021 all-time high was 1,400 days, and from the 2021 high to the recent 126,000 dollar high was 1,421 days, with one speaker arguing the four-year cycle time structure is intact. The only current deviation is that Bitcoin put in an all-time high before the halving. Both speakers agreed on a long-term price target of 170,000 to 200,000 dollars by end of 2029, with the next expected rally peak in 2028 to 2029. One speaker holds a longer-term belief that Bitcoin will reach one million dollars, citing AI, stock market tokenization, and 24/7 liquidity as drivers.

The expected altcoin bull run failed to materialize even with Bitcoin at 100,000 dollars. The assets that actually performed were those with ETFs attached, specifically Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Tokenomics are blamed for killing many altcoins because projects inflated supply and dumped tokens on retail buyers. The speaker's current altcoin watchlist is limited to the top 20 by market cap during a bear market, with Hyperliquid, BNB, Solana, Bitcoin, and Ethereum named specifically. Polkadot, Near Protocol, Arbitrum, Polygon, Render, Filecoin, Quant, and Bittensor are described negatively or as underperformers. Avalanche is criticized partly because its foundation sold over 100 million dollars in tokens on the way down.

Hyperliquid is ranked number 10 among all crypto assets by market cap during a bear market and is described as one of the most profitable crypto projects in the current environment. It trades at approximately 41 dollars with a market cap of roughly 10 billion dollars. The speaker targets an entry under 30 dollars with an estimated floor of 25 to 30 dollars. Circulating supply is approximately 250 million tokens, with estimated emissions putting the 2029 supply at 600 to 850 million tokens. At 600 million tokens and a 50 billion dollar market cap the price would reach approximately 80 dollars without any burn mechanism, and at 100 billion dollars market cap approximately 173 dollars. A token burn mechanism modeled after BNB is identified as a critical variable; if it cuts circulating supply in half at a 50 billion dollar market cap the price per token would reach approximately 130 dollars.

Solana is projected to reach 400 to 500 dollars in the next run, with current prices around 70 to 100 dollars described as a reasonable entry.