Why 10x Research Sees a Bitcoin Drop to $50,000 This Summer | Markets Outlook
Tuesday, 17 February 2026 · 1 min read · Listen to the episode ↗
Marcus Thielen, CEO of 10xResearch, foresees Bitcoin potentially dropping to $40,000-$50,000 this summer due to significant sell-offs and lack of ETF buying interest amid unfavorable market dynamics. He attributes recent price pressures to challenges faced by crypto hedge funds and changing U.S. economic expectations, which reduce prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Thielen notes that if Bitcoin continues its downtrend, it could transition from a B wave to a C wave, indicating a market bottom could be seen during the FIFA World Cup.
Marcus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10xResearch, discusses the current state of the Bitcoin market, highlighting a significant sell-off by long-term holders and a lack of buying interest from ETFs. He notes that many crypto hedge funds faced challenges in Q4, leading to liquidations that caused Bitcoin to trade at a discount on platforms like Coinbase. Despite initial expectations for ETF reaccumulation in the new year, outflows have created a negative imbalance.
Thielen points out that recent positive U.S. economic data has altered growth expectations, reducing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which historically have driven Bitcoin prices up. The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair has contributed to a sell-off at the $87,000 level, marking a significant downtrend. He explains that Bitcoin's price could drop to between $40,000 and $50,000 this summer, aligning with a previous thesis of a 60% correction, which has nearly been realized.
The conversation also touches on market dynamics, suggesting that the current wave may be transitioning from a B wave to a C wave, with a possible market bottom during the FIFA World Cup and a rebound in April. Thielen dismisses rumors about a specific Asian fund causing market issues, attributing liquidations to broader market dynamics and noting that Hyperliquid's trading volumes indicate widespread activity. He emphasizes that ETFs, having invested around $54 billion in Bitcoin at an average price of $90,000, are facing significant unrealized losses, which could lead to further adjustments in positions.
This summary was generated from the episode transcript and can contain mistakes.