Best and Final: WBD, IPO, BNPL

The podcast discusses the significance of measuring success in non-profits by focusing on actual impact rather than just low overhead costs, highlighting GiveWell's extensive research into cost-effective programs that have directed over $2.5 billion in donations, potentially saving over 300,000 lives.

Hosts Matt Levine and Katie Greifeld delve into the ongoing Warner Brothers merger negotiations, expressing skepticism about media deals and discussing the intriguing bidding war, particularly Warner's agreement with Netflix, which was valued higher than Paramount's cash offer. Paramount's unusual strategy involves presenting a bid that was previously rejected, emphasizing the dynamics of negotiation and the need for Warner's board's support. The conversation also touches on the significance of cable networks like CNN in these negotiations, with concerns about the implications for CNN's programming if the deal closes.

Speculation surrounds the potential transformation of CNN under Paramount, which may align the network more closely with Trump's interests, while a successful Netflix deal would keep CNN part of Warner Discovery. Analysts note that Netflix's pursuit of the deal is seen as a "nice to have," contrasting with Paramount's urgent need, raising questions about CNN's independence amid acquisition targets.

The podcast also discusses potential IPO timelines for major companies like SpaceX and OpenAI, focusing on 2026. There is skepticism about the trend of private markets becoming the new public markets, with concerns about high valuations without full maturity. SpaceX's potential IPO is highlighted, with projected revenues of $22 to $24 billion in 2026, driven by the need for capital to fund ambitious projects. The challenges of becoming a public company, especially with the visibility of failed rocket tests, are noted.

The discussion transitions to private credit as a new form of public credit, referencing challenges in assessing consumer financial health amid changing spending habits. Consumer spending is shifting from credit cards to alternative lending options like buy now pay later services, with private credit firms emerging as key players. Levine emphasizes that private credit firms are less regulated than banks, raising questions about future regulation and the associated risks.

The podcast concludes with a mention of upcoming episodes featuring insights from Bloomberg journalists on various topics, including the SEC and the role of courts in elections.