2025 Rewind: End of the Infinite Money Glitch and Looking Ahead to 2026

As 2025 concludes, Sebastien Couture, Rene Ernst, and Brian Crane reflect on significant events in the crypto industry and share predictions for 2026. Rene highlights key moments, including the buy a bid hack, notable price fluctuations, Polymarket's rise, and the balance hack in November. He expresses concerns about established companies entering the space, potentially undermining core values. Brian notes that Bitcoin's anticipated new all-time highs did not materialize, and many altcoins faced severe challenges, leading to the shutdown of numerous networks. The hosts discuss the ongoing decline of many crypto projects, suggesting that reversing this trend will be difficult.

The conversation shifts to the maturation of the industry, with a growing emphasis on revenue generation and real-world metrics. The exuberance of the past decade appears to be waning, as the market consolidates. The year began with excitement fueled by political events and meme coins, but as liquidity exited altcoins and DeFi protocols, it shifted towards more stable assets like Bitcoin and gold. Many Layer 1 and Layer 2 projects underperformed, with trading volumes plummeting once liquidity incentives were removed. The acquisition of the Axelor project by Circle signifies a changing perception of value, favoring equity over tokens.

The entry of incumbents like Revolut and Stripe into the crypto space raises concerns about the dilution of core values, although Revolut's crypto integrations are noted for their effectiveness compared to traditional asset transfer methods. The risks associated with institutional adoption of crypto by financial institutions and neo banks are emphasized, particularly regarding the potential erosion of decentralized ownership and individual agency. There is a growing sentiment that the initial promise of crypto, which allowed individuals to own part of the infrastructure, is fading, especially in light of regulatory frameworks like Mika and the Genius Act.

The discussion draws parallels to the music sharing era, suggesting that while user experience in crypto may improve, it risks sacrificing decentralization and self-sovereignty. The conversation also touches on Twitter's influencer program, where creators earn minimal revenue compared to the platform's profits from user-generated content, highlighting a need for a fairer revenue distribution model. The promise of Web3 is discussed, particularly its potential for disintermediation, allowing users to benefit directly from their engagement. However, disappointment is expressed over the lack of realization of this promise, leading to more extractive practices by established players.

The regulatory environment is seen as easing, presenting opportunities for innovation, yet challenges persist in competing with established platforms. Suggestions are made for regulatory bodies to mandate social networks to open source their APIs, which could enhance curation and user control over content visibility. The ongoing consolidation within the crypto ecosystem is noted, with significant distribution favoring larger companies like Coinbase and Binance, which are expected to dominate profit distribution. New players like Robinhood and Revolut are emerging, while the integration of DeFi into platforms like BitGet is noted as a trend towards creating universal trading solutions.

**Speaker 1** expresses concern that if Web3 becomes a speculative asset dominated by centralized exchanges, its value will decline. He highlights Bitcoin as a viable alternative to fiat currencies and a significant macro asset, while acknowledging potential threats to its success, such as quantum computing. Despite these threats, he believes Bitcoin will remain influential unless significant issues arise. He discusses the benefits of stablecoins and improved access to financial products through blockchain technology, while noting that self-custody and privacy features are currently underperforming but still hold potential.

**Speaker 1** emphasizes that trading is the primary use case for crypto, with decentralized exchanges well-positioned to benefit. However, he raises concerns about regulatory constraints that could make self-custody untenable in Europe within the next three to five years. Ongoing discussions in the EU about increased scrutiny on self-custody wallets, including source of funds and traceability requirements, add to the burden for users of unhosted wallets.

**Speaker 1** introduces the quantum threat to Bitcoin, noting a shift in the seriousness of this discussion over the past six months. **Speaker 2 (Brian)** confirms he has been tracking this threat closely. **Speaker 1** explains that quantum computing could enable brute force attacks that create transactions without the private key, potentially leading to theft from vulnerable addresses. While some Bitcoin address types may be upgraded to be quantum-safe, this requires significant changes, and Bitcoin's resistance to upgrades complicates the situation.

**Speaker 1** points out that centralized systems can adapt more easily to quantum threats compared to decentralized systems like Bitcoin, which lacks a governance process for upgrades. He estimates that the quantum threat could emerge in about ten years, but the timeline for upgrading Bitcoin will also take time. Other blockchains, including Ethereum and Solana, may face similar challenges, but Bitcoin has the most significant issues. The Bitcoin community faces a dilemma: upgrade to make Satoshi's coins unspendable, risking neutrality and price, or do nothing and wait for the quantum threat.

**Speaker 1** discusses the implications of Satoshi's coins being sold due to deciphered private keys, which could negatively impact Bitcoin's price. He suggests a two-year timeline for moving coins to quantum-resistant addresses, with unclaimed coins potentially going into a security budget. Concerns about Bitcoin's 2% annual inflation and decreasing block rewards are raised, along with speculation on governance changes, including the possibility of burning unclaimed coins after a set period. While he acknowledges that significant changes are unlikely in the near future, he expresses optimism about the Bitcoin ecosystem's ability to respond to existential threats like quantum computing.

**Speaker 1** also discusses the potential for a hard fork if a significant portion of the ecosystem decides to implement changes, raising concerns about the legitimacy of resulting forks. He mentions Zcash as a potential alternative due to its quantum-resistant properties and considers the challenges posed by multiple forks, especially regarding Bitcoin ETFs and platforms like Revolut. The debate continues on how exchanges will handle forks and which version of Bitcoin they will recognize as legitimate.

Real-world assets (RWAs) are predicted to gain traction, akin to stablecoins, with significant developments expected in 2026. The trend of perpetual trading on stocks is seen as a powerful draw that could increase user engagement in the crypto space. Overall, the outlook for 2026 is optimistic, suggesting improvements compared to 2025, despite ongoing challenges in certain areas of the crypto market.