Markets Right Now: Tony Greer on Stocks, Commodities & More

Patrick and Tony discuss the current state of the S&P 500, noting a recent market correction but maintaining a positive outlook. Tony believes the market is in a "retest zone" for a potential "blue sky breakout," with the S&P recently settling above 5,800. He identifies support at the 50-day moving average around 5,620 if the upward trend does not continue.

Tony highlights gold miners, uranium stocks, and aerospace and defense as current market leaders, with technology stocks also showing promise for growth if economic data improves. He anticipates a healthy bull market with rotating leadership among sectors such as tech, cyclical, materials, and energy. However, concerns are raised about small caps underperforming relative to the NASDAQ and S&P, attributed to rising bond yields.

The conversation shifts to implied volatility, with elevated levels indicating market uncertainty. Patrick agrees that the VIX is in a subtle uptrend, influenced by political statements, particularly from Donald Trump, which affect the S&P's volatility. The market's diminishing reaction to tariff news suggests a potential decrease in volatility from such headlines.

Apple's market position is discussed, with one speaker describing it as being in a bear market, making lower highs and remaining below its moving average. This indicates a changing market regime where previously strong performers like Apple may lag.

In the currency markets, a significant drop in the dollar (DXY) is noted, with speculation on whether it has sold too far too quickly. Patrick remains cautious, waiting for clearer signals before making moves, while acknowledging that a weaker dollar could lead to a commodity bull market.

The conversation transitions to Bitcoin, which has recently broken to a new high, indicating bullish momentum. One speaker expresses surprise at Bitcoin's resilience during market turbulence and discusses their trading strategy, targeting old highs for further gains. Observations on Bitcoin ETF inflows reveal consistent institutional commitment, highlighting strong interest in the cryptocurrency market.

The discussion centers on the current state of gold, precious metals, and commodities. The speaker notes gold's recent price increase of $70, maintaining a neutral stance. They recall heightened interest when gold peaked at $3500, contrasting it with the quieter rally around $2000. They express discomfort about selling and are considering re-entering if gold retakes a lower peak around $3450, emphasizing that central banks, especially China, continue to buy gold.

Insights on precious metals include Patrick's theory that increased Chinese buying is influencing platinum's recent activity. He will not chase platinum group metals but will use their performance as an indicator for gold. The conversation also touches on gold miners, with Patrick noting their strong performance early in the year and his recent buying at the 50-day moving average. He believes gold miners are the best-performing sector in the S&P and anticipates increased mutual fund allocations could significantly impact the market.

The speaker expresses confidence in buyers entering the market during dips, focusing on long positions in gold miners, gold, and Bitcoin. Year-to-date performance shows gold miners up 50%, gold up 28%, and uranium miners up 19%. The speaker discusses uranium, highlighting a significant price movement in uranium stocks and the potential for a bullish trend following news of support for nuclear expansion.

Transitioning to crude oil, the speaker notes it remains in a bear market with a downside bias, anticipating prices may test lower than the recent low of $55. They believe this could benefit sectors like airlines and miners due to cheaper energy. The speaker observes that oil prices are constrained by geopolitical tensions and ample refined product supply.

The bond market's influence on equities is a significant concern, with discussions around the reactions of insurers and central bankers to bond movements. If bonds break previous ranges, it could negatively affect stock markets. Current sentiment suggests that central banks might consider yield curve control instead of allowing further declines in bond prices.

A potential two-day reversal pattern in the bond market is noted, with recent trading showing a new low followed by a positive close, indicating a possible shift. The discussion also touches on selling patterns before the Memorial Day weekend, which may have impacted market behavior.

In the defense sector, the ITA ETF is analyzed, with Boeing and Raytheon identified as strong performers, while Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are lagging. The speaker advocates for a basket approach to investing in defense contractors and highlights the positive outlook for Boeing and General Electric.

The semiconductor sector is mentioned as stagnant since mid-2024, despite a significant increase in 2024, with caution advised against expecting similar performance this year. The conversation shifts to "stores of value" trades, including gold, miners, and Bitcoin, as the current investment strategy. The biotech sector is noted for its underperformance, with some stocks like Pfizer stabilizing. The IBB ETF struggles with resistance at the 50-day moving average, and a strategy of buying on successive settlements above moving averages is suggested, while overall sentiment remains cautious.